Showing posts with label Bain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bain. Show all posts

Friday, June 13, 2014

Friday, June 13th, 2014 - Infallible Source Predicts Economic Collapse!

Infallible Source Predicts Economic Collapse!
by Sinclair Noe

DOW + 41 = 16,775
SPX + 6 = 1936
NAS + 13 = 4310
10 YRYLD + .02 = 2.60%
OIL + .38 = 106.91
GOLD + 2.80 = 1276.90
SILV + .15 = 19.77

For the week, the Dow was down 0.9%, the S&P fell 0.7 percent and the Nasdaq was down 0.25%. The week's decline was the first after three weeks of consecutive gains on the S&P 500. For the year, the broad market index is up about 4.8%. So, it was a rough week, but a good Friday the 13th.

The Producer Price Index measures prices at the wholesale level; the PPI was down 0.2% in May. The decline was driven lower by cheaper food and gas, and follows two months of strong gains. In the past 12 months, producer prices have risen 2%, matching the Federal Reserve's inflation target. That's down from an annual gain of 2.1% in April. Excluding the volatile food, energy and profit margin categories, (for all you people who don’t eat food or drive in cars) core producer prices were unchanged in May. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, has been mostly below 2% for the past two years.

Of course, that might change, at least for people who eat and drive cars. The price of oil has jumped the past few days, now standing at $106.91 a barrel, mainly on fears of a civil war in Iraq. The International Energy Agency played down fears over the possible loss of oil exports from Iraq in its monthly Oil Market Report, writing: "Concerning as the latest events in Iraq may be, they might not for now, if the conflict does not spread further, put additional Iraqi oil supplies immediately at risk." Oil futures in New York rose 4.1% this week.

A very nasty group of rebels known as ISIS is closing in on Baghdad. ISIS stands for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant, and they are made of Sunnis. The government of Iraq is controlled by Shi’ites. ISIS has taken over the second largest city of Mosul; they have surrounded the largest oil refinery in the country, and they are moving to the capitol of Baghdad. So far, the Iraqi soldiers have been running away, but today a message from the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who is the highest religious authority for Shi'ites in Iraq, said people should unite to fight back.

In an interesting twist, before ISIS started ramping up the fight in Iraq, they were fighting in Syria, against the government of Bashar al Assad.

President Obama told reporters at the White House he would not send US troops back into combat in Iraq but had asked his national security team to prepare "a range of other options" to help Iraqi security forces. He specifically did not rule out the use of military action, which might include the possibility of air attacks to slow the rebel advance.

Pope Francis says the global economic system is near collapse. In an interview with la Vanguardia, the Pope said he was especially concerned about youth unemployment, and he denounced the influence of war and the military on the global economy, saying: “We discard a whole generation to maintain an economic system that no longer endures, a system that to survive has to make war, as the big empires have always done. Since we cannot wage the Third World War, we make regional wars. And what does that mean? That we make and sell arms. And with that the balance sheets of the idolatrous economies -- the big world economies that sacrifice man at the feet of the idol of money -- are obviously cleaned up."

The pope said there was enough food to feed all the world's hungry, and people’s needs should be at the heart of the economic system.

Following the elections in the European Union, France issued a report on debt, which contained several key findings, including the idea that the rise in the state’s debt in the past decades cannot be explained by an increase in public spending. The report also says that no one actually knows who holds the French debt. And the big conclusion of the report is that some 60% of the French public debt is illegitimate. An illegitimate debt is one that grew in the service of private interests, and not the wellbeing of the people. Therefore the French people have a right to demand a moratorium on the payment of the debt, and the cancellation of at least part of it.

Goldman Sachs and Bain Capital have agreed to pay a combined $121 million to settle a lawsuit that accused them and other firms of colluding to drive down the prices of takeovers before the financial crisis, according to a court filing on Wednesday. The deal, if approved by the court, would bring closure for Goldman and Bain of a seven-year-old lawsuit filed by former shareholders of the acquired companies, who claimed that private equity firms teaming up to do deals were partners in an illegal conspiracy to reduce competition.

The settlement deal also raises the stakes for the remaining defendants, which include some of private equity’s biggest firms. The Blackstone Group, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, TPG Capital, Silver Lake and the Carlyle Group are scheduled to head to trial in November. Now the $121 million dollar settlement is fairly small, but now that Goldman and Bains have broken ranks with the other defendants, the lawyers for the plaintiffs may gain additional bargaining power. The plaintiffs are seeking billions of dollars in damages, but because of the mechanics of antitrust law, the defendants could be liable for a multiple of that amount if they lose at trial.

The Justice Department has asked Citigroup for more than $10 billion to settle a probe into the bank’s sale of mortgage-backed bonds before the 2008 financial crisis. Prosecutors broke off talks with Citigroup earlier this week and are preparing to sue the bank after it offered less than $4 billion ($1 billion cash and the rest in consumer relief) to resolve the matter. The Justice Department could file a lawsuit as early as next week.

The department is taking a similar approach with Bank of America. Prosecutors also halted talks with the bank June 9 after it offered to pay more than $12 billion, short of the department’s $17 billion request. And then there is the outstanding case against BNP Paribas, where prosecutors are believed to be calling for more than $10 billion in fines for money laundering and sanctions violations. And this all follows on the heels of the Credit Suisse $2.6 billion fine and criminal guilty plea in a tax evasion case. No word whether prosecutors are looking at criminal charges against BofA or Citigroup. What we are seeing is that the fines are getting larger, but somehow with billions of dollars of penalties and multiple billions of dollars of wrongdoing, nobody ever goes to jail.

If you wonder why the prisons aren't filled with banksters, just follow the money from Wall Street to Capitol Hill. Earlier this week we saw one of Wall Street's favorite politicians of the decade, Eric Cantor, destroyed by a random teabagger who railed against him endlessly for pushing through Bush's TARP bailout of the big banks. Just this cycle, the financial sector had contributed $1,396,450 to Cantor's campaign coffers. And Cantor was just one of the politicians getting their wallets fluffed by Wall Street, a quick list of Wall Street favorites includes John Boehner, Spencer Bachus, Jeb Hensarling, and Democrats including Charlie Rangel, and Heny Stoyer. We have finally found one thing in Washington that is bipartisan – bribery, or should I say campaign finance…no, it’s bribery.

Elon Musk has announced that Tesla will let other companies use its inventions under an open-source-inspired agenda at the company. Here’s how Musk put it in a blog post:”Tesla will not initiate patent lawsuits against anyone who, in good faith, wants to use our technology.”

Tesla has hundreds of approved patents, and many pending applications, for all manner of inventions tied to electric-vehicle technology. Tesla pioneered innovations that lowered the cost and increased the safety of battery packs. Its cars recharge much faster than others on the market, thanks to connector, software, and power-management advances. Now this public company will offer these smarts up to its rivals and ask nothing but goodwill in return.

And while it sounds like a radical idea, it might be a very smart business move. One thing that is required for electric cars is charging stations, as ubiquitous as gas stations. And even though Tesla has patents on battery technology, and they have some of the best batteries around with longer range and faster recharging, they still need to improve the technology. And Musk apparently isn’t concerned with the competition, saying: “You want to be innovating so fast that you invalidate your prior patents, in terms of what really matters. It’s the velocity of innovation that matters.”

Here’s an amazing statistic, compliments of a Tweet from Bill Gates. From 1901 to 2000, the United States built millions of miles of roads and interstate highways, plus Hoover Dam, plus many other damns, plus an incredible number of building; and during that 100 year period, we used 4.5 gigatons of concrete. In the past 3 ½ years, China has been on a building boom that has consumed 6.6 gigatons of concrete.




Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Tuesday, September 4, 2012 - Review of the Economic News


Review of the Economic News

DOW – 54 = 13,035
SPX – 1 = 1404
NAS + 8 = 3075
10 YR YLD +.02 = 1.58%
OIL +.26 = 95.56
GOLD + 3.60 = 1697.20
SILV + .26 = 32.46
PLAT  + 21.00 = 1576.00

The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index fell to 49.6% in August, lower than the 49.8% in July and the worst reading since July 2009. Readings below 50% indicate contraction in manufacturing companies surveyed. It appears to be part of a global trend; there has been a slowdown in manufacturing activity in Asia and Europe. Only eight of 18 industries as tracked by ISM were growing in August, led by printing, primary metals and food. August’s new-orders index fell to 47.1% from 48.0% in July; this points to manufacturers ratcheting down production activity, and that might also lead to a slowdown in hiring. The employment index fell to 51.6% from 52%; still positive but heading in the wrong direction.

Another ISM survey of the services sector — things like banking, health care and entertainment — is also expected to show an economy plodding ahead. The services index is forecast to edge down to 52.5 from 52.6.

The monthly jobs report is always an important chunk of economic data, and this Friday's report takes on a little added significance because the Federal Reserve FOMC will be meeting next week to determine policy, and most likely announce something like QE3. It's expected the economy added about 120,000 new jobs in August. While that’s enough to keep pace with the natural expansion of the labor force, it’s far too weak to reduce the 8.3% unemployment rate. And the chances that hiring will accelerate in the final months of the year appear to be fading. There doesn't appear to be any great catalyst to ignite job growth – with the exception of possible action from the Fed; so in a twisted way, a bad jobs report on Friday could serve as justification for Federal Reserve action to spark the economy.

Moody's Investors Service has changed its outlook on the Aaa rating of the European Union to “negative,” warning it might downgrade the bloc if it decides to cut the ratings on the EU's four biggest budget backers: Germany, France, the UK, and the Netherlands.  So, Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, has been claiming he will do whatever it takes, and this Thursday the ECB Governing Council will be meeting and they are widely expected to provide details of a new debt-buying plan, something that might put a cap on sovereign bond yields.

And then Germany will be determining whether they are constitutionally willing to go along with any deal, and today Moody's simplified the case. Still a new survey shows only a quarter of Germans think Greece should stay in the euro zone or get more help from other countries.  Of course, there is a strong chance the ECB will announce a rate cut and hold back on announcing a bond buying program. Both the ECB meeting and the Federal Reserve meeting hold great potential for major disappointment.

Moody's is only getting around to an obvious situation. The Euro-economies are crumbling. Spain is starting to go the way of Greece. There is a run on the Spanish banks. In July, Spaniards withdrew a record 75 billion euros, or $94 billion, from their banks, an amount equal to 7 percent of the country’s overall economic output; doubts grew about the durability of Spain’s financial system. 

The withdrawals accelerated a trend that began in the middle of last year, and came despite a European commitment to pump up to 100 billion euros into the Spanish banking system. Analysts will be watching to see whether the August data, when available, shows an even faster rate of capital flight. More disturbing for Spain is that the flight is starting to include members of its educated and entrepreneurial elite who are fed up with the lack of job opportunities in a country where the unemployment rate touches 25 percent. According to official statistics, 30,000 Spaniards registered to work in Britain in the last year, and analysts say that this figure would be many multiples higher if workers without documents were counted.

Apple became the world’s most valuable-ever company two weeks ago. It is worth $624 billion, more than all the listed companies in Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain together.

General Motors reported auto sales rose 10% in August as all four major brands posted growth, led by Buick. Chrysler reported its US auto sales were up 14% as the company reported broad growth across its brands. Meanwhile, Ford's US new-vehicle sales improved 13% from a year ago on strong growth in utility-vehicle sales.

CoreLogic reports home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 3.8 percent in July 2012 compared to July 2011. This was the biggest year-over-year increase since August 2006. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 1.3 percent in July 2012 compared to June 2012. The July 2012 figures mark the fifth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on both a year-over-year and month-over-month basis. Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 4.3 percent in July 2012 compared to July 2011.

Construction spending fell in July from June by the largest amount in a year, weighed down by a big drop in home improvement projects. There are two ways to read this; one – we have run out of money for the improvements, two – we have done everything on the honey-do list. I'm going with the second reason, based upon personal experience.

The Commerce Department said  overall construction spending declined 0.9 percent in July, but spending on construction of single-family homes and apartments increased again, a hopeful sign for the modest housing recovery. It followed three months of gains, which were driven by increases in home and apartment construction.  The June decline left spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $834.4 billion. That's nearly 12 percent above a 12-year low hit in February 2011. Construction activity is roughly half of what might be considered to be healthy.

There is more fallout from the Libor rate-rigging scandal. Reuters reports Barclays has notified FINRA that a top executive and trader have been fired for their roles in the scandal. The regulatory filings disclosing the reasons for the two departures are not normally made public and Barclays did not specifically comment on the terminations, but they issued a statement that said:  "the firm undertook a thorough and robust internal disciplinary process promptly following the regulatory review which was completed in late July."

The dismissals reveal that even after settling with authorities, the full extent of Barclays' role in the rate-rigging scheme is still playing out. Lawyers familiar with the investigation say federal prosecutors continue to reach out to individuals to gauge interest in cooperating or taking pleas. They said US prosecutors are expected to begin making decisions in early September about whether to charge individual traders.

Also, at least a dozen US private equity firms have been subpoenaed by the New York state attorney general as part of a probe into whether a widely used tax strategy that saved these firms hundreds of millions of dollars is proper.  Among the firms that were subpoenaed are Bain Capital, KKR & Co, TPG Capital, Apollo Global Management, and Silver Lake Partners. Bain was once headed by Mitt Romney.  The subpoenas, which were sent out in July, seek documents related to the conversion of fees these private equity firms charge for managing investors' assets into fund investments. This means the investigation predates the release last month of confidential Bain fund documents by Gawker that revealed such a practice.

The practice is known as a "management fee waiver." As fund investments, the income would be taxed as capital gains, which attract rates around 15 percent. Without the conversion, the fees would be ordinary income, taxed at rates around 35 percent. The tax probe is being conducted out of the New York Attorney General's Taxpayer Protection Bureau, which was set up in early 2011. According to the AG's website, the agency was established "to root out fraud and return money illegally stolen from New York taxpayers at no additional cost to the state".

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Thursday, August 23, 2012 - No QE? Step Away From the Crack Pipe


No QE? Step Away From the Crack Pipe
-by Sinclair Noe

DOW – 115 = 13,057
SPX – 11 = 1402
NAS – 20 = 3053 
10 YR YLD -.05 = 1.67%
OIL – 1.05 = 97.69
GOLD + 17.00 = 1672.10
SILV + .75 = 30.68
PLAT + 6.00 = 1548.00

The Federal Reserve FOMC minutes were released yesterday and the interpretation called for monetary accommodation sooner rather than later; so we'll see QE3 August 31 at Jackson Hole on September 13 at the next FOMC meeting. They might not call it QE3, they might do some variation on the theme but the promise was that there will be big time accommodation unless the economy shows a strong and sustainable improvement. And if the Fed fails to deliver on QE3, you can expect a severely negative response from Wall Street; expect a move that would make today's 115 point drop look small; the economy would tank and the Fed would be forced to step in with QE3, only in crisis mode. 

So, this morning on CNBC, James Bullard, president of the Fed's St. Louis bank, said the minutes from the July 31-Aug. 1 meeting were "stale" because the economy had picked up since then. If it becomes "a bit stronger," he said, the Fed will hold off. And then he went back to smoking  his crack pipe. 

What do the economic reports suggest? The HSBC Flash China manufacturing purchasing managers index, a preliminary reading that provides an early peek at data for August,  fell this month to its lowest level since November.  A German business survey showed orders from abroad for the country's goods, a mainstay of its economic strength, fell at the fastest rate in more than three years.

The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week while US manufacturing improved only slightly in August, worrisome signs for an economy struggling to create enough jobs. Sales of new single family homes rose in July, matching April's two-year high. That's nice. Maybe Mr. Bullard needs to visit Greenspansbodycount.com. This is a blog I just heard about that collects stories of suicides and murder-suicides linked to foreclosure trauma. The current count is 227. 


Earlier this week, Mitt Romney's economic adviser Glenn Hubbard told Reuters that Ben Bernanke's motives should not be questioned by politicians. Hubbard said:  "Ben is a model technocrat. He gets paid nothing for getting kicked around all the time. I think they ought to pat him on the back." Today, Romney said he would not re-appoint Bernanke to another term as chairman of the Federal Reserve. 

It's good to see agreement and communication in action. There are broad differences between the two parties this year, but when it comes to explaining their visions in more than a soundbite, each side is unwilling to trust voters to understand the full implications of their positions. 

Then Romney announced an energy plan which he claims will make the US energy independent by 2020. It basically boils down to more oil drilling. I didn't see much about alternative energy, green energy, or conservation.

A website called Gawker has posted more than 900 documents that include audits, financial statements and investor letters that catalog some of Romney's investments through Bain Capital. As the site explains: Bain isn’t a company so much as an intricate suite of steadily proliferating inter-related holding companies and limited partnerships, some based in Delaware and others in the Cayman Islands, Luxembourg, and elsewhere, designed to collectively house roughly $66 billion in wealth in its many crevices and chambers. It will be interesting to see what comes out of this over the next few days.

Securities and Exchange Commission Chairwoman Mary Schapiro called off a vote that would have changed the rules for the money-market-fund business; the votes didn't add up. Schapiro’s proposal would have required money funds either to float their share prices like other mutual funds, which might result in breaking the buck, or to post capital against losses on their asset holdings; that seems to make sense.  The proposal would also have made money funds hold back a small portion of investors’ cash for 30 days when investors redeem all their shares, to reduce the possibility of a run on the fund at the first hint of trouble. Of course, if you knew that your money would be kidnapped for a month, you might not want to put your money in the money market fund in the first place. The money fund industry is $2.6 trillion big; it carries implicit guarantees to individual investors – not explicit, just implicit; it is subject to runs; it is systemically important; and they still haven't figured out what to do with it. 

Only half of the previously foreclosed homes owned by Fannie Mae are either on the market or being prepared for sale. The remaining properties are currently locked away in some step of the foreclosure system.  The National Association of Realtors said in its existing home sales report yesterday that its officials were pressuring government agencies to release more of their REO in markets short of inventory.   It has long been suspected the government – including Fannie, Freddie Mac and the Department of Housing and Urban Development – are deliberately holding these homes off the market in order to get more for them when home prices recover. Fannie Mae says it has 109,000 repossessed homes currently available for sale but they also admit 47% of their inventory is unable to be marketed. That's a big chunk of inventory.

German and French leaders put the pressure on Greece to keep pursuing painful reforms, suggesting they are hesitant to accept the new Greek prime minister's demand for more time to fix his country's battered economy and public finances. The German's remain intransigent. The Greeks might default. Formal default might not have a huge impact but it sets the stage for Spain and Italy to default. That scares the Germans, so there is a chance the Greeks will get an extension, and that means another 6 months or another year of the Greek economy existing in a downward spiral without a functioning economy.

Hedge funds are having a hard go; only about 11% are matching or beating the performance of the S&P 500. Citigroup's private bank is pulling about $410 million from Paulson & Co., that's the hedge fund  run by billionaire John Paulson; the fund lost 18 percent this year through July in its Advantage Plus strategy; the fund posted a loss of 51 percent last year. This may be the first time Citigroup fired someone for underperformance, rather than being the one getting fired. 

If the Federal Reserve goes ahead with QE3, or rather when – who benefits? The Bank of England released a study on the distributional effects of quantitative easing. The research states: By pushing up a range of asset prices, asset purchases have boosted the value of households’ financial wealth held outside pension funds, but holdings are heavily skewed with the top 5 per cent of households holding 40 per cent of these assets. In other words; who benefits from QE? The rich. I think this should also prove there is a difference between quantitative easing and stimulus. 

Both gold and silver moved above their 200-day moving average, for you chart watchers; that's a very bullish sign. There are rumors the LBMA is having trouble delivering silver for large orders. Supplies are tight, demand is strong.  Sprott buying silver; Soros and Paulsen buying gold.  Basel III rules for making gold a tier 1 asset are in the works.  FOMC hints at pending QE, which is another way of saying print Benny, print.  Global economies still under duress. Don't get carried away with the move in metals but when the Fed announced QE2, gold and silver moved to highs.